From Zuckerberg to Zealberg - Part 1 Update

Part 1 Update: Current events suggest the importance and potential of predictive analytics for identifying cyberspace threats.


In Part 1 I discussed how Facebook's vast mountain of data could be analyzed to provide the CIA and other law enforcement/intelligence agencies with accurate, real-time data on trends regarding potential threats and populations of interest.

To expand on this possibility, recent "hacktivism" events like those associated with the Lulzsec, Anonymous, and AntiSec movements (largely responsible for a collaborative DDoS attack on the CIA's homepage and other websites) represent another demographic that could be analyzed en masse for identification of future cyberspace threats.

NOTE: The information in this post should not be viewed as biased in favor of any involved parties.



However, as with any information and insight, the following post may be useful to all involved parties including:

















































































...and so many more




Without a doubt, utilizing predictive analytics software like that provided by In-Q-Tel funded Recorded Future would be considerably useful in monitoring trends specific to hacktivist groups and the "Anonymous" collective.

As mentioned in Part 1, identifying and categorizing Facebook users by their political and religious beliefs is not particularity difficult considering that such information is often explicitly provided via Facebook's "religious views" and "political views" information boxes.

Alternatively, identifying users associated with and sympathetic to hacktivist movements and various internet subcultures requires more complicated identification and categorization methods with respect to Facebook data.

First, it is crucial to recognize that individuals within these various demographics widely embrace the idea of anonymity on the internet.

Additionally, key members and even non-participant sympathizers may be well versed in the use of proxies and other technologies that make user identification difficult. While these realities are fraught with various difficulties for intelligence and law enforcement agencies, they do not suggest that group analysis via predictive analytics is impossible.


Without a doubt, Facebook data could be considerably useful in analyzing collective trends related to hacker groups and the internet collective known as "Anonymous."











However, identification and categorization methods would largely depend on a more complex analysis of profile content and user behavior than analysis specific to political or religious beliefs.

Such an analysis would include:

1) "Likes" specifically related to hacking, hacktivism, and various internet subcultures.


To give you a sense of the numbers, a Facebook search for related terms like "lulz" or even "Anonymous" will bring up relevant Facebook pages:























"Anonymous" (listed a public figure) has 131,875 page "likes" while other pages exist that are not relevant.


Additionally, other pages register as "hits" but may be unique and interconnected to other relevant issues (i.e. "Anonymous" group with the WikiLeaks logo and 2,763 page "likes")



2) Posted links on one's wall, friend's walls, and "Like" pages.

Such links would of course be specific to news articles, message boards, imageboards, imageboard archives, pictures, webcomics, internet "memes," and countless other web content specific to hacking and relevant internet subcultures.



3) Text analysis of user posts in reference to all things included in #2 in addition to identification of relevant web lingo, phrases, and "meme" references.




4) Identification and analysis of fake, pseudonym, duplicate, alias, and "troll" profiles.


While such an analysis would be considerably useful, 1-4 each present inherent challenges.

For 1-3, there could be relative uncertainty in identifying which users are most relevant to possible cyber threats.

Without a doubt, much of what is contained in 1-3 is exhibited in the general population, as many users post links, use phrases, and display content that would register them as a possible "hit."

A database of said users would essentially be a vast collection of simple observers, active participants, inactive participants, sympathizers, non-sympathizers, and even individuals of non-interest that are simply exposed to and affected by what is largely the current state of Internet culture.

Despite the diverse and vast nature of such a database, predictive analytics specific to all that is contained in 1-3 could nonetheless yield significant insight into the evolution of Internet culture and may even identify emerging cyber threats.

Most important, however, would be #4.

Fake, anonymous, pseudonym, alias, and "troll" profiles present a unique challenge in terms of analysis and identification of possible cyber threats.

First, it is not out of the question for a Facebook account of this nature to be used by multiple people. This of course would require IP address analysis and other identification methods.

Additionally, while fake profiles are sometimes blatantly obvious, a "troll" profile does not necessarily have to be a fake or anonymous profile. Many individuals engage in "trolling," "flaming," and other forms of online behavior using their legal name and true identity.

Elias Aboujaoude, a doctor at Stanford University’s school of medicine, has elaborated on this trend. Aboujaoude argues that online behavior creates "e-personalities" that can change an individual's real-life personality.





















Visit Dr. Aboujaoude's website for more information


Aboujaoude states: "Our e-personalities are an uninhibited version of who we are, a collection of personality traits that make us more child-like, impulsive, darker and narcissistic..."

Aboujaoude continues, arguing that "We are anonymous, so it’s so easy to think that what we say has no consequences."

For purposes of predictive analytics, it would be crucial to utilize Facebook's database of "report abuse" notifications and data specific to the monitoring of abusive behavior on Facebook.

Additionally, user data specific to instances where Facebook has taken proactive action by shutting down and removing pages with a high level of abusive behavior would be useful.


Aside from Facebook specific issues, it would also be interesting to consider how Recorded Future and predictive analytic software can be used to go "directly to the source" and analyze imageboards, forums, message boards, and other websites specific to hacking activities and the "Anonymous" collective.









However, when considering the technical nature of imageboards alone (which would be the most useful for law enforcement/intelligence agencies) you begin to deal with massive amounts of data and content that may be irrelevant, questionable, vauge, memetically repetitive, and in some cases illegal.

Such a task would be a true test for Recorded Future's temporal analytics engine.

In essence, the task would be like searching for needles in a haystack and then somehow compiling, organizing, and correlating the needles to find relevant information and "predict the curve." However, this haystack isn't your typical haystack. The haystack continually expands and changes by the second with hay being constantly moved, removed, and altered along with the needles in it.

Mind you, that is probably a very poor metaphor and an understatement when considering the notorious but scarcely discussed Dark Internet

They call the Internet "cyberspace" for a reason.

Trying to put a metaphor behind the dynamics of it all might be best described by someone well versed in the Big Bang Theory or the Nebulae Hypotheses.


In sum, such an analysis is too much to consider for this post alone but is indisputably worthy of consideration for the CIA and internet security companies like HBGary who have suffered cyber attacks by Lulzsec, InfoSec, and "Anonymous."

Furthermore, if arrests are issued for participants in online attacks then non-hackers sympathetic to and active hackers operating within hacker cells and the "Anonymous" collective may adapt their strategies with respect to these possibilities.


So that's that.


As promised in Part 1, Part 2 will discuss how Facebook can go "toe-to-toe" with LinkedIn along with additional analysis on Facebook's more imminent competitor Google with the launch of their Google Plus (Google +) social network gadget.

From Zuckerberg to Zealberg - Part 1

Part 1: What will a CIA / Facebook collaboration look like?












The following series will discuss Facebook and where I think the social networking site is heading.

Additionally, I'll detail where I would want to take the company if Zuckerberg magically gave me the keys to the CEO office after a theoretical Facebook IPO.

But first, I'm not going to entirely drop the WikiLeaks and Julian Assange developments I've been covering in this blog.

Instead, I'm going to combine both issues in Part 1 of "From Zuckerberg to Zealberg" with respect to recent comments regarding Facebook made by WikiLeak's Julian Assange.


Assange: Facebook = an "appalling spy machine"




In addition to infamous diplomatic cable leaks, Assange has indisputably stirred great controversy and has even amassed a considerable number of loyal and sympathetic followers wary of both the "shadowy" elements of government diplomacy and now the "shadowy" elements of search engines and social networking sites.


As with anything, however, Assange's comments must be taken with a grain of salt and scrutinized further.

This post will dissect Assange's claim and will give greater detail into how the CIA is likely to use Facebook for intelligence gathering purposes.

First, it should be noted that Assange is not the first to cry "spook" in regards to Facebook.

Vishal Agarwala is credited with a 2007 YouTube video that asserts a link between Facebook and the CIA:



While this 2007 YouTube video was mostly spread through alternative news sources, Assange's similar, more recent comments regarding the CIA and Facebook are likely to have refreshed suspicions for those privy to this YouTube video.

Additionally, Assange's comments are likely to have aroused fresh suspicions regarding possible CIA/Facebook collaborations for those who simply caught wind of Assange's comments via mainstream media sources.

Taken together, both Agarwala's and Assange's claims point towards an In-Q-Tel/Facebook connection.









In-Q-Tel is a venture capital firm tasked with keeping the CIA and the greater intelligence community technologically up to speed with the latest information technology solutions required for each agency's various operations.

While probably not as cool as "Q" and his MI6 gadget lair in the James Bond films, In-Q-Tel is without a doubt providing western intelligence agencies with cutting edge IT tools needed to manage massive amounts of data (among other things).
















Desmond Llewelyn AKA MI6's "Q"
RIP (1914 - 1999)

To get a sense of how much data intelligence agencies deal with, it was recently revealed that the NSA amasses an estimated 74 terabytes worth of data every 6 hours (the rough equivalent of all the data stored in the Library of Congress' digital archives).





















Given all this, what would a CIA / Facebook collaboration look like?


First, to give Assange credit where credit is due, there is a "special interface" for the FBI/CIA/NSA and other alphabet agencies.

However, public knowledge regarding this interface typically cites it as a means to expedite information requests, thereby digitally "streamlining" the sharing of vital information as opposed to the more costly "written, printed, and mailed" information requests from intelligence and law enforcement agencies.

But what would collaboration beyond crucial information requests look like?

Here is what I believe will occur in the near future (if not already occurring at early or even advanced stages):














Recorded Future is a software company that specializes in predictive analytics.

On May 3rd, 2010, both Google Ventures (Google's venture capital arm) and In-Q-Tel (CIA affiliated venture capital company) invested in Recorded Future:



Instead of trying to explain what Recorded Future does, I'll just share these videos so you can get a sense of the services the company offers:

Intro video:


Very cool "Obama analysis" video:




I am willing to bet that Recorded Future's technology and services will eventually be applied to Facebook's mountain of data.

Without a doubt, the CIA already uses Recorded Future's services as one of many information technology services for Open Source Officers (OSOs) and other agency analysts.

But imagine the possibilities if Recorded Future's technology is applied to Facebook the way it is applied to search engines, blogs, twitter feeds, and other Web 2.0 media...

First, Facebook has been indisputably influential in social revolutions in the MENA regions and other world regions.

What if Recorded Future's technology can be used to "predict the curve" and foresee revolutions, terror plots, disruptive activities, political changes, and countless other events that world governments and intelligence agencies are constantly seeking to detect and monitor.

Facebook is the perfect platform for this type of analysis and surveillance.

Queries and analyses using the Recorded Future platform could take countless forms, including the following obvious examples:

1) Categorizing Facebook users by their "religious views" info box and additional religious content in their page "likes" and overall profile.

By doing this, it is possible to monitor, map, and analyze important collective trends with respect to people of all world religions.


2) Categorizing Facebook users by their "political views" info box and political content in their page "likes" and overall profile info.

With this, it is possible to do the same for everything included in #1.

However, such analyses could also yield:

-Advanced information on emerging political movements.

-Election predictions with greater accuracy than Gallup and news agency polls.

3) Analyzing Facebook's meta-demographic data

With this, it could be possible to gather info on global population trends with better representation and statistical accuracy than government censuses.

Eventually, this could even evolve to the point of representing a "real-time" global census if you will.


In sum, Facebook's databank is arguably one of the richest and most extensive databanks available for past, present, future, and "real-time" analysis. While I don't think ties between Facebook and the intelligence community are as devious as Assange portrays them to be, this is an issue that will continue to attract intense scrutiny worldwide.

In the next coming post I'll share a way Facebook can go "toe-to-toe" with the recently IPO'd LinkedIn via a redesign of the Facebook interface to better suit both employers and employees alike.

Wikileaks' Julian Assange - An Update

In my post on 6/20/10 I discussed two possible ways that journalists involved in divulging sensitive information could be intercepted and detained by foreign governments interested in their apprehension.

It turns out that one of these methods is actually panning out for the notorious founder of WikiLeaks, Julian Assange.



















First, I speculated that Assange would try to seek asylum in Iceland due to their proposal to harbor asylum seeking journalists involved in high profile whistle-blowing stories.

Second, I gave two scenarios that could play out and lead to the detainment of Assange or any other asylum seeking journalist:

1) Iceland joins the EU and the EU pressures Iceland to extradite journalists that powerhouse countries in the EU want extradited.

2) Journalists that are implicated in international crimes could be taken into custody by Interpol.

It turns out that instead of seeking asylum in Iceland, Assange tried to seek asylum in Sweden but was denied a residency permit by the Swedish government.

The plot thickened even further with pending rape and molestation charges against Assange.

Sure enough, Swedish police have issued an international arrest warrant for Assange in relation to the charges:














Interpol hunts for Wikileaks founder Julian Assange


....the story doesn't stop there, however.
























In spite of catching heat from Interpol, Assange has vowed to another leak seven times greater than WikiLeaks' most recent leak.

This almost guarantees that Western intelligence services will step up pursuit and surveillance efforts while making apprehension operations for Assange entirely possible.


That's not it though...

Along with Interpol and Western intelligence services, Assange is also likely to have caught the attention of Russian intelligence services with his proposal to leak classified Russian documents.

















Perhaps Assange will evade all three parties and continue his operations while on-the-run.

Perhaps Interpol will detain Assange and extradite him to Sweden for the pending rape and molestation charges (where he will be a sitting duck for all interested parties).

Perhaps Western intelligence services or Russian intelligence services will issue a kill order for Assange should the leaks be severe enough and the threat Assange poses to either party increases.

If Assange is assassinated, it could turn out to be a "frame up" operation with Russian intelligence making it look like a CIA job or vice-versa.

A bewildering game of real-life Clue could be in the works this very moment.
























As always..."time will tell"

Another Web 2.0 Video

My first post on this blog was a video that showed exactly what web 2.0 is all about.

Here is a video I recently came across that suggests we are in the midst of a "social media revolution" :



Other than consisting of a large user-base, this so-called "social media revolution" might entail other dynamics that are likely to go unnoticed.

If this "social media revolution" is truly a revolution then one has to ask just who benefits from the changing times.

A video from the New America Foundation yields some clues:



Now while this video is pretty long winded, the title sums up what the author argues in his book.

It seems to me that the emerging liberal nouveau riche have benefited the most from the continued growth in social media.

Additionally, I suspect that a majority of those engaged in the "social media revolution" are liberal leaning "techie types" on the same page as the liberal nouveau riche.

It is highly possible that this will change political dynamics in the United States and abroad. But as I always say: "only time will tell."

Update on last post

I mentioned Wikileaks in my last post as an example of a website with sensitive info. Since January of this year there have been some developments with that site.

4/5/10 :

A 2007 video of a U.S. air assault attack in Iraq was submitted to wikileaks.


This is a photo of the U.S. Intelligence Analyst that leaked the video. His name is Bradley Manning...a 22 year old from Potomac, Maryland. He was eventually detained after a former hacker provided the information he learned from Manning to the proper authorities.

Here is a link to the whole story:

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2010/06/leak/

Here are the instant messages between Manning and the informant that turned him in:

"I can't believe what I'm confessing to you"






















Manning "couldn't believe" he was spilling the beans to former hacker Adrian Lamo.

I'm not sure what will happen to Manning. He is under investigation and this case will most likely require a thorough investigation and probing of how Manning exploited the electronic systems and how much information he released. Not to mention patching up and making security tight.

6/10/2010

Julian Assange, Australian journalist and founder of WikiLeaks, is being sought by the Pentagon for questioning on his alleged role in the Manning leak.

At close to 40 years of age Assange is probably still quite mobile.

I don't actually know if Assange has safehouses but if he gets out of this he probably will want to have several prospective safehouses.

Iceland was so inspired by this story that they are now seeking to become a "safe haven" for journalists seeking asylum. So with that, Assange just might be Iceland's first asylum seeking journalist.















I don't know if this would be a good or bad thing for Iceland. When you harbor journalists that important people want to talk to you might find yourself walking on eggshells instead of sunshine.

Here are two ways that journalists could be extradited from Iceland:

1) Iceland joins the EU and the EU pressures Iceland to extradite journalists that powerhouse countries in the EU want extradited. Since Iceland has debt issues, it will most likely obey and take orders. Of course this won't be much of an issue if Iceland takes several years (maybe decades) to pay off its debt before applying to the EU.

2) Journalists that are implicated in international crimes could be taken into custody by Interpol.

"Criminal Suspect" or "Suspected Terrorist" most likely weighs more than "journalist" in the Web 2.0 era where even I could call myself a "journalist."

So that's that. Maybe this will develop further and I'll have another update.

Until then, if you want to travel to those leak sites I mentioned here are two big ones I know of:

Wikileaks (as mentioned here)

Cryptome (worth a look)

"Intimacy 2.0" and Internet Anonimity

I always thought "online privacy" was an oxymoron. Some net users think anonymous posts or online aliases suffice as a form of online privacy.

For me, anonymous posts and fictitious internet identities cheapen the online experience.

Posting anonymously also suggests an individual isn't bold enough to stand by a statement.

Many say we live in a "small world" and I think the old phrase rings true.

However, internet anonymity makes a small world seem enormous with the infinite ambiguity present in the world wide web.

Some argue books like Orwell's "1984" and Huxley's "Brave New World" are works of fiction turning into present day reality.





I'll admit that seemingly unlimited dangers in the world make the mass surveillance of "1984" plausible.

I'll also admit that today's unlimited entertainment makes certain dynamics of "Brave New World" plausible too.

However, here is one modern, "dark horse" book that is likely to turn into some form of future reality along with the book's older, aforementioned predecessors:



In short, this book focuses on a type of "time viewing" technology that can go back and replay history's events.

Everybody worldwide can view the actions of politicians, loved ones, historical figures, etc and be presented with absolute truth in the form of video evidence.

While this could happen if the world sees another quantum physics genius along the lines of Albert Einstein, here is what I see happening:

Instead of "time viewing" technology there could be a mass movement for internet transparency. All IP addresses of online posts, blogs, videos, web 2.0 media, etc would be revealed (showing the user's real name and true identity).

Sites like this:



and other "leak sites" would have anonymity compromised.

Everyone would know who was behind cyber attacks, internet whistleblows, etc.

The result would be similar to what happens in "The Light of Other Days":

Widespread transparency causing a decrease in corruption and dishonesty...but this end won't be easy..

Those in defiance could form modern day Luddite societies and shun technological society.

Others will be at the technological forefront and frontlines:

Data miners
Signals intelligence operatives
Government database operators
Telecoms
Hackers

and all other forms of data, media, computer, and internet techies.

All persons of influence and interest would form factions..battling each other for what information goes public, gets released, gets removed, gets deleted, etc.

Gordon Gekko's dream comes true and information truly becomes a "commodity."




The innovation that could make it all possible?

Possibly the dawn of the first quantum computer.

Such a computer could access all the information, organize it, post it, and update said info at breakneck speed.

Not to mention the dynamics of quantum computing could make modern day encryption methods obsolete (theoretically a quantum computer could hack an NSA database in minutes).

Maybe the faction with the best quantum computer wins out.

Maybe the faction who wins out uses something absurdly low tech (happens more than one would think).

Only time will tell...

Here's a recent article..semi related:

"How online life distorts privacy rights for all"

Old Blog of Mine

I thought this old blog was disabled for me not using it.

seanzberg.blogspot.com

It's about me saving/investing money for learning expenses (beyond school)